Joint US-Japan study says if key fab production is interrupted for 10 days, it will take up to 12 months to fully restore the supply chain

According to Harvard Business Review, a semiconductor supply chain study conducted by an MIT team in collaboration with Denso Corporation (DENSO) found that a 10-day shutdown of a critical fab could lead to a series of With additional disturbances, the impact will be as long as one year.

The study sets two core indicators: Time to Live (TTS) and Time to Recovery (TTR). The former refers to the longest duration for which the supply chain can maintain the existing supply and demand matching energy level after a key node is interrupted, and the latter refers to a key node. Time to return to full functionality, with simulations showing TTS as short as a few days associated with a fab, compared to a longer TTR to fully restore supply and demand after a 10-day or so production disruption at a critical fab Up to nearly 12 months, it will cause significant financial losses to all supply chain links, and the recovery time of inventory on the supply chain will also take at least 300 days.

Based on the findings, the team's experts called on policymakers and industry leaders to revisit the actions needed.

A resilient supply chain is a popular concept at the moment, but the construction of semiconductor facilities is a time-consuming process, and capacity reflow does not necessarily create flexibility. Experts call on the U.S. government to stress-test the planned local semiconductor supply chain, if necessary. Double backup of production capacity, and attention should be paid to the production capacity guarantee of mature processes.

The researchers also suggested that before the new semiconductor manufacturing facility is completed and put into operation, the U.S. government can consider establishing a strategic stockpile of chips in order to ensure supply to imitate oil reserves, and encourage manufacturers to recycle chips in second-hand products. Other suggestions also include establishing chip circulation monitoring. systems for direct distribution intervention when necessary, as well as strengthening common standards for components in industries such as automotive to improve manufacturers’ ability to respond to supply disruptions.