In the first half of 2023, the semiconductor industry will destock and welcome the dawn in the second half of the year?

According to Taiwan media reports, observing the foundry, memory, test equipment, IC design, packaging and testing markets, it is expected that the semiconductor industry will experience a recession in the first half of next year, and the second half of the year will usher in the dawn after destocking until the second quarter of next year. .

On the foundry level, the market has recently reported that the leading foundry TSMC will be affected by major customers, including MediaTek and AMD, in the first quarter of next year. The capacity utilization rate may drop significantly, and the revenue in the first quarter of next year will decrease by 15%.

PSMC also pointed out a few days ago that its performance in the second half of the year will decline quarter by quarter, and it may further decline in the first quarter of next year. However, operations are expected to gradually bottom out, and the decline in performance will narrow. In addition to wafer foundry, there are also warnings about memory. The US memory factory Micron’s operating loss in the first quarter of fiscal year 2023 is expected to further expand in the second quarter. Micron also decided to lay off 10% of its employees.

Everest Investment Consulting has a conservative outlook on the prosperity of the semiconductor industry next year. It predicts that next year's semiconductor revenue will drop to US$623 billion, an annual decrease of 2.5%. Among them, memory revenue may decline by 15.7%, which will be the main reason for the overall semiconductor industry decline.

In terms of semiconductor testing equipment, Advantest, a major manufacturer, recently quoted the analysis of research institutions and predicted that the global semiconductor testing equipment market may enter a recession next year. The demand for special applications continues to be strong and is expected to return to normal levels by 2024.

In the field of IC design, according to industry analysts, the average inventory turnover days of major IC design manufacturers has further increased to about 216 days since the third quarter of this year. In addition, the inventory level is high and the demand for terminal consumer electronics products continues to be weak. The downtime of the semiconductor cycle may be longer. The market is expected to be long, and the destocking process of IC design manufacturers will be postponed to the first half of next year.

TrendForce, a market research agency, also pointed out recently that in the context of high inflation, the consumption momentum of terminal consumer electronics products is limited. In addition, the high inventory of clients still needs time to be digested. From the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year, IC For the design industry, it will be an extremely challenging two quarters, and there may be a quarterly decrease in revenue. As for the trend of the packaging and testing industry, based on comprehensive industry opinions, the inventory adjustment and correction of the packaging and testing industry may continue to the second quarter of next year, and the third quarter of next year may see the light of day.

There are also forecasts that the inventory adjustment of the semiconductor industry will take longer than market expectations, and it is not ruled out that the inventory adjustment may be extended to the second half of next year.