TSMC 3nm/5nm Revenue to Hit NT$1 Trillion in 2024

TSMC is poised to surpass NT$1 trillion (about RMB 223.26 billion or USD 31.02 billion) in revenue from its 3nm and 5nm technology nodes for the first three quarters of 2024, thanks to strong sales momentum in Q3 2024. The company achieved a record high in quarterly sales for Q2 2024, driven by the full-capacity production of its advanced 3nm and 5nm nodes, which together accounted for 50% of its NT$336.7 billion in Q2 revenue. This strong performance contributed to a total revenue of NT$609.3 billion for the first half of the year.

Looking ahead, TSMC projects an 11.43% revenue increase for Q3 2024, with expectations to maintain full-capacity utilization. Revenue from the 3nm and 5nm nodes is anticipated to reach NT$377 billion, pushing the total revenue for the first three quarters above NT$1 trillion. Additionally, TSMC's 7nm and 28nm process utilization has risen to 80%, with all related equipment fully depreciated, further enhancing the company's profitability.

Despite a gradual recovery in the global semiconductor industry during the first half of 2024, TSMC has outperformed expectations, driven by robust growth in the AI chip sector. The 3nm series contributed approximately 15% of the total Q2 revenue, equating to NT$101 billion, while the 5nm/4nm series accounted for 35%, or NT$235.7 billion. In Q1 2024, these series represented 9% and 37% of total sales, respectively.

For Q3 2024, TSMC anticipates revenue of NT$754 billion, with at least 50% derived from its 3nm and 5nm series. The increase in sales and profits is expected to support TSMC's expansion and advancement in technology nodes. Currently, TSMC is the only company reaping significant benefits from substantial investments in 3nm and 5nm technologies.

With strong customer demand, TSMC plans to maintain full-capacity operation for its 3nm and 5nm nodes through the end of 2024. The company has revised its capital expenditure forecast for 2024 to USD 30-32 billion. In contrast, Intel has reduced its 2024 capital expenditure budget by 20% to USD 25-27 billion, with further reductions planned for 2025.

Sources indicate that TSMC is leading the competition in the 3nm and 5nm technology sectors, surpassing Samsung Electronics and Intel. The company is also making significant progress towards 2nm technology, with customer commitments already secured. TSMC's 2nm manufacturing will take place at the F20 facility in Hsinchu Science Park and the F22 plant in Kaohsiung. The F20 P1 fab is set to increase production by Q4 2025, targeting a monthly capacity of nearly 30,000 wafers, while the Kaohsiung facility aims to achieve over 30,000 wafers per month by 2026.

The F20 site will include four fabs: P1 and P2 for 2nm, and P3 and P4 for A14 (1.4nm), with equipment installation expected to be completed in H1 2027. The Kaohsiung site will feature five fabs: P1, P2, and P3 for 2nm, and P4 and P5 for A14, with installation projected to finish by 2028.