DRAM Prices to Drop 10% in H1 2025!

According to the latest report by market research firm Omdia, DRAM prices for PCs, servers, and mobile devices are expected to remain on a downward trajectory until at least the third quarter of 2025. This decline is attributed to subdued semiconductor demand and an oversupply in the Chinese market. Specifically, prices are projected to drop by approximately 10% in the first half of 2025, with a further decline of about 5% in the latter half.

The report highlights that the oversupply situation in China has contributed to a decrease in DDR4 prices throughout 2024. In addition, the introduction of DDR5 products has also led to price reductions. Omdia forecasts that the price of 64GB DDR5 server modules will decrease from $270 in Q4 2024 to $248 in Q1 2025, with a further drop to $228 in Q2 2025. Some market observers even anticipate prices could fall below $200 in the fourth quarter.

This price decline is largely driven by limited GPU supply in servers and the entry of Chinese companies, previously focused on DDR4, into the DDR5 market. China’s CXMT (Changxin Memory Technologies) is set to begin DDR5 mass production by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, major memory producers like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are expected to reduce shipments in the first quarter, contributing to an overall contraction in the DRAM market.

Samsung’s recent earnings report indicated that inventory adjustments in the mobile and PC markets will likely persist through Q1 2025. Meanwhile, in the server market, delays in plans from some data center customers, caused by GPU supply constraints, have led to postponed memory demand.

The report concludes that the memory industry is closely monitoring potential signs of a market rebound in the second half of 2025. While the downward price trend is expected to continue, the timing of inventory adjustments and the recovery of shipment volumes will be crucial to a market recovery. Analysts suggest that the resumption of shipments will be key to both the market revival and subsequent price rebound.