PC Chip Inventory Shows Significant Surplus Again

According to a research report published on the 13th by Bernstein Research analyst Stacy Rasgon, the PC industry is experiencing a notable inventory surplus as the demand for PCs has failed to match supply. Rasgon's team compared the Q4 2024 PC shipment data with CPU sales from AMD and Intel, revealing that supply in the market has exceeded actual demand.

Rasgon suggests that concerns over potential tariffs from the Trump administration in 2024 may have led PC manufacturers to over-order chips, contributing to the growing surplus of PC components. Last year, the total CPU shipments during Q4 were 13% higher than the number of PCs shipped, a stark contrast to the 2% excess in Q3.

Intel's interim co-CEO, David Zinsner, also commented during the company's earnings call, noting that while the exact figures remain unclear, the potential increase in Q4 revenue is likely due to customers seeking to avoid potential tariff risks.

Rasgon emphasized that the PC channel has gone through multiple cyclical fluctuations since the pandemic, and another downturn seems imminent. This trend has raised concerns, particularly for AMD. He pointed out that total PC shipments in Q4 were nearly 30% lower than the peak seen in Q4 2021 during the pandemic.

Interestingly, Rasgon highlighted that while AMD's PC CPU shipments in Q4 actually exceeded the peak levels seen during the pandemic, Intel's PC CPU shipments have declined. However, even considering AMD's market share growth, attributing the recent gap solely to product advantages may be overly optimistic.

Citi Research, citing Mercury Research's latest survey on the 12th, revealed that Intel's overall microprocessor shipment market share dropped by 104 basis points to 67.4% in Q4, marking the lowest level recorded since 2002. In contrast, AMD's market share grew by 53 basis points to 22.1%, while semiconductor IP leader Arm saw a 51 basis point increase, reaching a 10.5% share.