TSMC's Q1 revenue may decline by 10-15% next year, 7nm production capacity utilization rate will fall below 50%

According to the Digitimes report, according to sources familiar with the semiconductor equipment supply chain, due to the sharp decline in new orders in the first half of the year, TSMC’s revenue forecast for the first quarter of 2023 will decline by 10-15% from the previous quarter, especially the utilization rate of the 7nm process may drop in the first quarter. Break 50%.

In response to continued sluggish end-market demand and slow inventory depletion, large customers such as Apple, AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm and MediaTek, as well as smaller customers, continued to cut orders with TSMC, people familiar with the matter said. TSMC's revenue, while still hitting a record high in November, is expected to decline from December onwards and fall more sharply in the first quarter of 2023.

TSMC announced its November revenue report last Friday. Benefiting from the continuous pull effect of major customers, the consolidated revenue in November was approximately NT$222.71 billion (approximately US$7.27 billion), an increase of 5.9% from the previous month. , an increase of 50.2% compared with the same period last year, creating a new high in single-month revenue. Analysts at investment bank Huaxing Capital also said that the real test for TSMC will be in the first half of 2023.

TSMC CEO Wei Zhejia previously stated that the inventory adjustment of the semiconductor supply chain will continue until the first half of 2023, and the capacity utilization rate of the company's advanced and mature process nodes will not rebound until the second half of the year. Wei Zhejia also pointed out that due to the sharp shrinkage of chip demand for mobile phones and PCs, the capacity utilization rate of the 7/6nm process will be lower than that of other nodes.

Nevertheless, the source said that benefiting from the strong replenishment orders of major customers in the second half of the year, the peak season of Apple device shipments, and the increase in Apple device shipments, TSMC's revenue and profits for the full year of 2023 are still expected to maintain growth momentum. The legal person estimates that the fastest next year's revenue will challenge 100 billion US dollars.