Qualcomm, MediaTek unlikely to launch 3nm mobile SoC in 2023, sources say

On January 3, according to DIGITIMES, industry sources said that given the high production costs and uncertain sales prospects of Android phones, MediaTek and Qualcomm will have to think more about whether to follow in Apple's footsteps and let TSMC use them in 2023. 3nm process technology manufactures their mobile SoCs.

TSMC will mass-produce 3nm chips in 2023, and the yield performance and revenue contribution of the new process is expected to be comparable to 5nm technology. As the first customer of the new node, Apple will feature a 3nm SoC on its 2023 iPhones.

However, sources continue to say that Qualcomm and MediaTek have yet to make a firm decision on whether to join the 3nm camp this year, although they both hope to keep up with Apple's upgrades to its flagship mobile SoC process.

The source emphasized that the uncertain market prospects of non-Apple phones and the manufacturing cost per wafer of the 3nm process has exceeded US$20,000, which may hinder the launch of 3nm SoC by the two mobile phone AP manufacturers later this year.

In addition, sources in the IC design supply chain said that MediaTek will almost certainly not release a 3nm mobile SoC in 2023, citing that its share of the flagship mobile SoC market is still relatively low and suppliers are unlikely to release it in this year. The sales volume in the flagship machine field has increased to a level that can afford the production of expensive 3nm chips.

According to sources, in the past year, MediaTek’s shipments of the Dimensity 8000 series for low-end mobile phones have significantly exceeded the Dimensity 9000 for flagship models. The rapid migration to the 3nm node may only be for symbolic purposes, but In fact, it will bring huge pressure on its operating costs.

The source also pointed out that MediaTek is currently focusing on internal destocking and cost control, and does not have much time to consider launching 3nm wafers with its foundry partners.

At the same time, sources said that Qualcomm, which has a relatively large share of the flagship mobile phone AP market, is also holding a wait-and-see attitude on whether to adopt the 3nm process in its new Snapdragon mobile SoC series. That's because suppliers are likely to gauge factors such as the progress of inventory depletion, the overall economic outlook and actual demand from branded handset customers.

The source emphasized that if Qualcomm's customer Samsung Electronics seeks to compete with Apple in the flagship mobile phone market and launch a new Galaxy series flagship model with a 3nm AP in early 2024, Qualcomm may have no choice but to launch a 3nm mobile SoC.

Therefore, Qualcomm has a higher chance of providing 3nm smartphone APs than MediaTek this year, but it has not yet made any specific decisions.

In fact, both MediaTek and Qualcomm are caught in the dilemma of whether to follow Apple's process upgrade in 2023. Failure to do so will further erode their share in the flagship smartphone AP market, as consumers of flagship models care more about spec upgrades than price and value for money, the sources said.