2nm Wafer Costs Surge: 50% Chip Manufacturing Increase

International Business Strategies analysts recently released a report projecting a 50% increase in manufacturing costs as manufacturers transition to the 2nm process, compared to the 3nm process. This shift is expected to result in a per-wafer cost of $30,000 for 2nm technology.

According to IBS estimates, the construction cost of a 2nm wafer fabrication plant (WSPM) with a monthly capacity of 50,000 wafers is approximately $28 billion, whereas establishing a 3nm wafer plant with equivalent capacity is estimated at $20 billion.

The rise in wafer fabrication costs is primarily attributed to an upsurge in the quantity of EUV lithography tools, significantly impacting costs per wafer and per chip. TSMC's current roadmap indicates plans to introduce the N2 process between 2025 and 2026. For a 300mm 2nm wafer, Apple is projected to incur a cost of around $30,000, in contrast to the estimated cost of $20,000 for an N3 process wafer.

Arete Research estimates the chip size of Apple's latest smartphone, the A17 Pro, to fall between 100mm2 and 110mm2, consistent with the chip sizes of the previous A15 (107.7mm2) and A16. Assuming a chip size of 105mm2 for the A17 Pro, a 300mm wafer can yield 586 chips. At a theoretical 100% yield, the cost per chip is approximately $34, while an 85% yield results in a cost of around $40.

IBS predicts a $50 cost for Apple's 3nm chips, with the cost of the 2nm "Apple chip" estimated to increase to $85. Using a wafer cost of $30,000 and an 85% yield for calculation, the cost for an individual 105mm2 chip is estimated to be $60.