TSMC 2024 Goal: 15%+ Growth, 2.5T NTD Revenue

TSMC is poised for a notable resurgence in 2024, benefiting from the global semiconductor industry's recovery, the resolution of inventory destocking in end terminals, and the sustained growth in AI applications. Industry analysts express confidence in TSMC's outlook for the current year, anticipating record-breaking revenues denominated in both New Taiwan Dollars (NTD) and US Dollars. Projections suggest that NTD revenue could potentially exceed 2.5 trillion, with a year-on-year increase surpassing 15%.

The year 2023 witnessed a contraction in the global semiconductor market, impacting TSMC, which is estimated to experience a year-on-year decrease in US dollar revenue of approximately 9.5% to 10%. However, the prevailing sentiment is optimistic for TSMC in 2024, with industry experts anticipating the company to overcome challenges and resume a growth trajectory.

As we enter 2024, there is a consensus within the industry that TSMC is well-positioned to leave behind operational challenges and embark on a path of growth. While TSMC typically refrains from commenting on external financial forecasts, the company acknowledged uncertainties, including inflation and rising costs, during a supply chain management forum in December 2023. Nevertheless, TSMC's President, Wei Zhejia, highlighted potential opportunities in 2024 due to the rapid development of AI applications.

Experts identify TSMC's growth drivers in 2024 as high-performance computing, AI accelerators, and increased smartphone penetration. Projections indicate that the company is poised to surpass the $80 billion mark in US dollar revenue, reaching over $82 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of approximately 14% to 16%. Translating these figures to NTD revenue, TSMC's annual growth rate in 2024 is expected to exceed 15%, possibly challenging up to 19%, reaching over 2.5 trillion NTD.

Industry analysts attribute TSMC's growth momentum in 2024 to diverse applications and increased demand from major customers such as Apple, NVIDIA, and AMD. The global growth in the production value of graphics processing units (GPUs) is identified as a significant driver. Additionally, the development of customized AI accelerators and application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) is expected to contribute significantly to TSMC's overall business.

Market sentiment is positive regarding TSMC's financial performance in 2024, prompting early market participation and driving the stock price to close the year at a high. As of December 29, 2023, the closing price of TSMC's shares on the Taiwan Stock Exchange was 593 NTD, with the ADR closing at 104 USD, resulting in a total market capitalization of 5.0288 trillion USD (over 15 trillion NTD), positioning TSMC as a leading Asian enterprise and the 13th largest globally.