TSMC Q3 Revenue to Hit $23.3B, 3nm Utilization at 110%

J.P. Morgan has released a report highlighting that TSMC is poised for significant growth in the third quarter, driven by strong demand for its 3nm and CoWoS technologies. The report estimates TSMC's Q3 revenue could reach $23.3 billion, slightly above the company's own forecast of $22.4 to $23.2 billion. Despite the appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar, the gross margin is expected to hit 54.8%, positioning it within the upper range of TSMC's forecast (53.5-55.5%).

Looking ahead to Q4, J.P. Morgan anticipates a sequential revenue increase of 10%, supported by sustained shipments of the iPhone and the rapid growth of new application processors from MediaTek and Qualcomm. The growth of the 4nm segment, primarily fueled by AI accelerators, is also expected to contribute significantly.

For 2025, J.P. Morgan projects that TSMC will continue its strong trajectory, driven by persistent demand for AI accelerators, an expansion of its 3nm business to additional clients beyond Apple, and improvements in N3E yield and pricing that will enhance gross margins. Currently, demand for TSMC's 3nm technology continues to outstrip supply, with capacity utilization reaching 110%. This trend of demand exceeding supply is expected to persist into 2025.