NAND Flash Q1 Prices to Drop Over 10% Amid Weak Demand

According to the latest research by TrendForce, NAND Flash suppliers will face several challenges in the first quarter of 2025, including rising inventory levels and worsening order demand. As a result, average contract prices are expected to decline by 10% to 15%. The price drop in wafers is expected to stabilize, while module products, particularly enterprise SSDs, are forecasted to experience a more limited decrease due to steady order demand. In contrast, Client SSDs and UFS prices are likely to continue their decline as consumer-end demand remains weak, with buyers showing cautious purchasing intentions.

The market is entering its traditional off-season in Q1 2025. Despite favorable factors such as the discontinuation of Windows 10 support and the release of new CPUs, the AI PC application market has not matured enough to capture consumer attention. Therefore, the primary task for upstream suppliers in the first half of 2025 will be to manage existing Client SSD inventory. In light of weak demand and considerable inventory pressure, suppliers are expected to reduce contract prices by approximately 13% to 18% in Q1 2025.

TrendForce highlights that the enterprise SSD market will continue to grow throughout 2025, driven by AI and storage applications. However, Q1 procurement is likely to decline due to the off-season. In response to increasing demand for high-capacity products above 60TB, some suppliers are shifting focus, while further price reductions are expected for 16TB and 30TB inventory. Enterprise SSD contract prices are forecasted to drop by 5% to 10% in Q1 2025.

Regarding eMMC products, smartphone manufacturers are expected to prioritize inventory digestion in Q1 2025, while favoring lower-priced modules. Additionally, with the peak of education-related procurement already passed and delays in telecommunications infrastructure projects across various countries, demand is expected to remain subdued. Facing intense pressure from module suppliers lowering eMMC prices, manufacturers will likely lower their contract prices, with an anticipated decline of 13% to 18% in Q1 2025.

While UFS products are increasingly used in high-end smartphones and automotive electronics, weak demand in the overall smartphone market is expected to keep UFS demand at lower levels in Q1 2025. Due to competition from module suppliers, manufacturers are also expected to reduce their prices, with a forecasted 13% to 18% decline in contract prices.

TrendForce notes that module suppliers are likely to have limited demand for specific NAND Flash wafer specifications in the first quarter of 2025 due to the uncertain market outlook and ongoing price declines. With low purchasing intentions and heightened competition among suppliers, Q1 2025 wafer contract prices are expected to fall by 13% to 18%, and the price drop could potentially expand further.