DRAM Giants Halt DDR3/DDR4, Nanya and Winbond Stocks Surge

According to Nikkei News, with the ongoing decline in DRAM prices, major manufacturers like Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron are expected to halt the production of DDR3 and DDR4 memory by 2025. This shift could result in a potential market rebound for Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers, who are anticipated to benefit from a surge in orders. The market is forecasting that, starting in the second half of this year, the oversupply of DRAM will gradually turn into a supply shortage.

This news triggered a significant rise in stock prices on July 17, with Winbond Electronics and Nanya Technology seeing gains of 8.16% and 6.35%, respectively.

As of January 2025, the wholesale price of DDR4 8Gb memory is expected to be around $1.75 per unit, while the smaller 4Gb modules are priced at $1.34 each, representing a 6% decline from the previous month. This marks the fifth consecutive month of price drops, with the 8Gb products experiencing their largest decrease in nearly two years (since March 2023), and the 4Gb products seeing their biggest drop in over 19 months (since April 2023).

Omdia's forecast suggests that the downward price trend for DRAM will persist into the second half of 2025, with DDR4 and DDR5 products both expected to continue their price declines. PC, server, and mobile DRAM prices are predicted to fall by nearly 10% in the first half of 2025, with a further 5% reduction in the latter half. Amid these price fluctuations, leading DRAM manufacturers may reduce production to adjust to the market dynamics.

Industry insiders report that Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron may halt production of DDR3 and DDR4 products by the end of this year, as per Nikkei News.

It’s noteworthy that in May 2024, Taiwan's Economic Daily reported that Samsung and SK Hynix are focusing heavily on developing HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and mainstream DDR5 memory modules. From the second half of 2024, they plan to phase out DDR3 production, which previously led to a 20% price increase in DDR3 chips.

If Nikkei’s report proves accurate, this could shift orders towards Chinese mainland and Taiwanese DRAM manufacturers that continue DDR3 and DDR4 production. A potential shortage of these products might emerge after the summer.

Nanya Technology has previously stated that, while DRAM supply is set to increase in 2025, the additional capacity will be primarily directed towards enhancing HBM and DDR5 production. Traditional DRAM products (DDR4, LPDDR4, DDR3) will need to be sold off to reduce inventory. Demand from AI servers and general server markets is expected to remain strong, and mobile device manufacturers are gradually returning to normal inventory levels. In the first half of 2025, these factors are expected to help balance supply and demand. Additionally, the PC market is anticipated to grow due to enterprise upgrades, with AI-driven PCs contributing to an increased demand for DRAM.

Pei-Ing Lee, General Manager of Nanya Technology Corporation, emphasized that the "worst-case scenario" for the DRAM industry has passed, and that a market recovery may begin as early as the second quarter of 2025.

Winbond Electronics also mentioned in their recent earnings call that the company is transitioning from DDR3 to DDR4, with a significant increase in DDR4 shipments expected in the second half of 2025. As a result, future earnings and production capacity are set to become key topics in upcoming earnings calls, as the company prepares to meet the evolving market demand.