NAND Flash Price Hikes Set for Q3, Some to Rise Over 15%

With the arrival of the traditional electronics peak season in the second half of 2025, NAND Flash prices are steadily rising. Industry forecasts confirm that price increases for NAND Flash in Q3 are inevitable. Specifically, products under 512Gb are expected to see price hikes of over 15%, while higher-capacity products of 1Tb and above will likely rise by 5% to 10%.

The price surge is primarily driven by continuous production cuts initiated by major manufacturers like Micron and SanDisk since the second half of 2024. These strategic reductions in NAND wafer output have significantly tightened supply, leading to a sharp market rebound.

Current market quotes place 256Gb, 512Gb, and 1Tb TLC Flash wafer prices at $2.75, $3.05, and $5.60 per unit, respectively. The strongest price growth is observed in products below 512Gb, which have historically generated lower margins and are thus prioritized in production cutbacks.

Additionally, mid-to-low capacity NAND products remain widely used in smartphones, USB drives, memory cards, IoT devices, and industrial control systems, ensuring consistent demand. The ongoing shift in manufacturing towards higher-capacity QLC products has also restructured production, further reducing supply of mature TLC wafers.

Unlike high-capacity enterprise products that are often secured through long-term contracts, sub-512Gb NAND products predominantly circulate in the open market where inventories have remained low, making prices highly sensitive to supply changes.

Furthermore, these products experienced the steepest price declines over the past two years, often falling below cash production costs, creating more room for price recovery.

Industry experts predict that NAND Flash supply constraints will persist through the second half of 2025 and could extend into 2026. While the market rebound supports manufacturers' profitability, it also presents new challenges for downstream system integrators and brand customers, including rising costs, inventory strategy adjustments, and the need for more resilient supply chains.

Overall, the NAND Flash market is entering a "tight supply, rising prices" cycle, with production control strategies effectively driving up pricing and improving market dynamics.