Is Intel's order delay leading to a reduction in the scale of 3nm expansion? TSMC: On schedule

On August 4, Isaiah Research said that it is predicted that the scale of TSMC's 3nm expansion will be reduced, and the original 3nm expansion in 2023 may reduce the monthly production of 10,000 to 15,000 pieces. In this regard, TSMC emphasized that the capacity expansion project is proceeding as planned.

TrendForce said that since Intel originally planned to hand over the tGPU chipsets in Meteor Lake to TSMC for foundry, the recent mass production time has been postponed to the end of 2023 for some reason, making the 3nm production capacity originally booked in 2023 almost completely cancelled, which has impacted TSMC's expansion. Production plans, resulting in the first wave of customers for the 3nm process from the second half of 2022 to 2023, only Apple will remain.

However, TrendForce said that looking at other advanced process customers, AMD, MediaTek and Qualcomm have all planned to mass produce 3nm products in 2024. Apple's new iPhone in 2024 is also expected to fully import 3nm process processors. The introduction of the above customers will affect TSMC's 3nm capacity utilization and revenue performance in 2024.

Isaiah Research believes that the iPhone 15 series launched by Apple in the second quarter of 2023, currently only two high-end models are expected to be equipped with the A17 chip (N3), rather than the full line of products, the above may become a deferred in addition to Intel products In addition, another reason for TSMC to slow down the 3nm expansion rate.

TrendForce said that Intel's 4nm outsourcing production may add important potential growth momentum to TSMC. If Intel's 4nm is not mass-produced as scheduled, it may outsource its computing core to TSMC, which will also strongly drive TSMC's growth in 2024.

TSMC pointed out that it does not comment on the business of individual customers, emphasizing that the capacity expansion project is carried out as planned.