NVIDIA's Next-Gen Rubin GPU May Face Launch Delay

According to multiple media reports, analysts believe NVIDIA's next-generation Rubin GPU may face mass production delays at TSMC due to a redesign. Rubin was originally scheduled to enter production in late 2025 and launch in early 2026. However, Fubon Financial analyst Sherman Shang noted that the likelihood of a delay is high.

The first tape-out for Rubin was completed in late June, but NVIDIA is now reworking the design to better compete with AMD's upcoming MI450. The next tape-out is expected by late September or October, which could limit Rubin's shipment volumes in 2026.

In semiconductor manufacturing, "tape-out" marks the final stage of IC design, when the verified design is sent to the foundry for production preparation.

Nomad Semi analyst Moore Morris said Rubin will replace the current Blackwell series, which saw shipments of 750,000 units in Q1 2025, rising to 1.2 million in Q2, 1.5 million in Q3, and 1.6 million in Q4.

Morris also pointed out that AMD and Broadcom are currently the fastest-growing customers for TSMC's advanced CoWoS packaging capacity. In 2025, NVIDIA is expected to dominate CoWoS capacity with a 51.4% share, followed by Broadcom at 16.2% and AMD at 7.7%. By 2026, Broadcom and AMD's shares are projected to rise to 17.4% and 9.2%, while NVIDIA's will slightly dip to 50.1%.

On Wednesday (13th), NVIDIA (NVDA-US) fell 0.85% to $181.54 per share, AMD (AMD-US) surged 5.37% to $184.34, and TSMC ADR (TSM-US) dropped 1.17% to $241.44, equivalent to NT$1,445.98 with a 20.5% premium.