TI Q4 Outlook Misses, Shares Drop 8%

According to reports, Texas Instruments (TI) released its fourth-quarter outlook on Tuesday, forecasting revenue and profit below Wall Street expectations. The update raised fresh concerns that the analog semiconductor market may face a longer path to full recovery amid ongoing uncertainty over U.S. trade and tariff policies.

According to data compiled by the London Stock Exchange Group, TI expects Q4 revenue to range between $4.22 billion and $4.58 billion, compared to analysts' estimates of $4.51 billion. The company projects earnings per share between $1.13 and $1.39, falling short of the expected $1.41.

In Q3, Texas Instruments reported $4.74 billion in revenue, up 14% year-over-year and slightly above forecasts of $4.65 billion. However, EPS came in at $1.48, just below the expected $1.49.

TI's shares dropped over 8% in after-hours trading following the report and are down roughly 3% year-to-date. Analysts noted that investors remain cautious about how potential new tariffs and trade negotiations could affect the company's performance.

"The economy is recovering, but the pace is very slow," said CEO Haviv Ilan, adding that TI continues to navigate a prolonged oversupply in the analog chip segment.

While several trade agreements have helped mitigate risks from tariffs imposed under former President Donald Trump, TI's subdued outlook highlights the ongoing uncertainty surrounding new tariff regulations that continue to weigh on semiconductor makers.

Stifel managing director Tore Svanberg commented that demand signals for analog chips remain mixed as the market contends with the combined impact of tariffs and trade disputes.

In August, Trump announced plans for a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors, with exemptions for companies manufacturing — or committing to manufacture — in the U.S. However, the proposal has yet to be formally implemented, leaving industry players unsure of its ultimate impact.

As part of its strategy to strengthen domestic production, Texas Instruments has pledged over $60 billion to expand its U.S. manufacturing capacity, underscoring its long-term commitment to a more resilient chip supply chain.