Samsung Q4 Profit to Jump 160% on Chip Shortage

The ongoing chip shortage is pushing memory prices sharply higher, and the market now expects Samsung Electronics to post a major profit rebound in the fourth quarter, with operating profit forecast to surge around 160% year over year.

Over the past few months, semiconductor prices have climbed rapidly as the industry accelerates its shift toward AI-related chips. This transition has limited output of conventional memory products, while demand for both legacy and advanced chips used in AI training and inference continues to rise.

According to LSEG SmartEstimate data, Samsung's operating profit for the October–December period is projected to reach 16.9 trillion won (about US$11.7 billion). That compares with 6.49 trillion won a year earlier and would mark Samsung's strongest quarterly performance since Q3 2018, when profits peaked at 17.6 trillion won.

Some analysts have recently turned even more optimistic. With memory pricing proving stronger than expected, several forecasts now put Samsung's fourth-quarter operating profit above 20 trillion won.

TrendForce analyst Avril Wu noted that Samsung is particularly well positioned to benefit from the current upcycle.  "As conventional DRAM prices continue to rise sharply, Samsung, whose capacity is heavily weighted toward this segment, stands to gain more from the current pricing momentum," she said.

DRAM plays a critical role in servers, PCs, and smartphones, where it temporarily stores data and enables smooth, high-speed operation of software and applications. Among these products, DDR5 DRAM stands out for offering higher bandwidth and better power efficiency than previous generations, making it increasingly attractive for data-center and AI-related workloads.

The strength in memory pricing is not limited to Samsung. In December, Micron Technology said its adjusted profit for the second fiscal quarter was likely to come in close to double Wall Street expectations. Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra also warned that tight supply conditions could persist beyond 2026, adding that in the medium term the company may only be able to meet roughly half to two-thirds of demand from some major customers.