Three DRAM Giants Hit 18M Wafers, Supply Still Tight

According to South Korean media citing market research firm Omdia, the world's three major DRAM manufacturers are expected to produce a combined 18 million wafers this year, up about 5% year over year, yet still far short of meeting global demand.

Samsung Electronics plans to lift its DRAM wafer output to around 7.93 million units in 2026, up from 7.59 million in 2025. The increase is largely driven by capacity coming online at its Pyeongtaek campus, where average quarterly DRAM wafer starts are projected to reach 2 million units for the first time. SK hynix is also accelerating expansion, with 2026 DRAM output expected to rise to about 6.48 million wafers from 5.97 million a year earlier. This growth is mainly tied to investments at its Cheongju M15X fab, with new capacity starting to contribute from the second half of 2026. By contrast, Micron is taking a more cautious approach, keeping its 2026 DRAM output roughly flat at around 3.6 million wafers, with most new capacity scheduled for 2027–2028.

Even with Samsung and SK hynix scaling up, total DRAM output in 2026 is projected to increase by only about 850,000 wafers year over year. This limited growth does little to ease the severe supply tightness in the market. The core driver remains explosive demand for high-performance memory from cloud AI chips and AI data centers, which is crowding out supply for traditional end markets such as PCs and smartphones. As a result, industry watchers expect the current DRAM price upcycle to extend through all of 2026.

The report also highlights technical headwinds. While wafer input is rising, effective chip output faces constraints as manufacturers transition to more advanced processes. Samsung, for example, is moving to its sixth-generation 10nm-class DRAM (1c), a shift that typically brings temporary yield and capacity losses. In a market where demand already far exceeds supply, these transitional inefficiencies further limit actual available output, reinforcing upward pressure on both HBM and conventional DRAM pricing.

Supply-demand imbalance has reached worrying levels. Analysts estimate that DRAM makers are currently able to fulfill only about 60% of overall customer demand, while server DRAM fulfillment is below 50%. In other words, roughly half of server memory demand cannot be met on time. The main reason is strategic capacity allocation, with advanced nodes and new fabs prioritized for HBM and server-class DRAM. This shift has left PC and smartphone segments struggling to secure sufficient volumes, in some cases receiving only about half of what they need.

Against this backdrop, DRAM contract prices are seeing sharp swings. TrendForce forecasts that in the first quarter of 2026, general-purpose DRAM contract prices could jump 55% to 60% quarter over quarter. NAND flash prices are also expected to rise 33% to 38% in the same period, buoyed by strong server demand. In the server segment specifically, DRAM price increases are projected to exceed 60%, underscoring the strong pricing power held by memory makers amid tight supply.

Notably, weaker end demand in the PC market—due to lower notebook shipments and downgraded specifications—has not prevented prices from climbing. With DRAM makers significantly cutting supply allocations to PC OEMs and module makers, PC DRAM prices are expected to remain on a steep upward trajectory through the first half of 2026. The mobile market faces a similar reality, with mobile DRAM contract prices set to rise sharply over the coming quarters, adding cost pressure for smartphone brands.

Looking ahead, industry experts see little chance of a near-term fix. Meaningful relief is unlikely until Samsung's Pyeongtaek P4 fab enters mass production, which, based on current timelines, is not expected before 2027. SK hynix likewise needs its Yongin semiconductor cluster to come online to materially boost output. Until these large-scale projects are completed, the global DRAM market is expected to remain in a state of tight balance—or outright shortage—for an extended period.