DDR4 Prices Surge 24% in Three Months, Outpacing DDR5

According to the latest report from Barclays, DDR5 spot prices rose 8% in October compared with the previous quarter, bringing the three-month increase to 20%. Meanwhile, DDR4 prices climbed 4% in October, with a cumulative three-month increase of 24%, surpassing DDR5 and highlighting continued demand for older-generation memory.

Barclays noted that Micron Technology expects the global memory shortage to potentially persist until 2029. As supply-demand imbalances intensify, memory manufacturers are increasingly negotiating prices based on market conditions rather than relying on traditional minimum and maximum price ranges.

Citi's outlook similarly suggests that DRAM supply shortages may ease slightly in the coming months but could reach their peak in the fourth quarter of 2027. The firm expects tight supply conditions in both DRAM and NAND markets to continue through 2028, with the DRAM supply deficit potentially reaching 13.9% in Q4 2027 and the NAND deficit reaching 8.3% in Q1 2028.

Memory Shortages Drive Chip Downgrades and Renewed DDR4 Demand

Memory shortages are also influencing chip design and hardware specifications. Barclays reported that some chip designers are reducing product specifications to cope with limited supply, although it remains uncertain whether these adjustments will become a long-term trend.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently revealed that Tesla had temporarily halved the memory capacity of its AI5 chip before increasing it to 96GB to avoid having one of the lowest memory capacities among comparable chips. The move has drawn further attention to the impact of memory constraints on chip design.

Meanwhile, hardware manufacturers are returning to older memory standards. Gigabyte recently announced that its B760 and H610 motherboard product lines would support new processors for Intel's LGA 1700 platform with DDR4 memory. First introduced in 2014, DDR4 is regaining relevance as manufacturers seek alternatives amid ongoing supply constraints.

Nanya Technology Maintains Focus on Strong DDR4 Demand

Strong DDR4 demand is also shaping memory manufacturers' production strategies. Nanya Technology General Manager Lee Pei-Ying recently stated that DDR5 accounts for approximately 10% of the company's revenue. Although Nanya Technology has the capacity to increase that share to 40%, the company is not rushing to shift production toward DDR5 because DDR4 demand remains strong and customers continue to rely heavily on its supply.

From DDR4 price increases outpacing those of DDR5 to chip designers adjusting specifications and hardware manufacturers reviving older memory standards, the ongoing memory shortage is reshaping product configurations, manufacturing priorities, and supply-demand dynamics across the semiconductor industry.