NVIDIA Blackwell GPUs Fully Booked for the Next Year

Morgan Stanley has recently highlighted NVIDIA's strong market position in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip sector, revealing that demand for its next-generation Blackwell GPUs is already sky-high. According to NVIDIA's management, orders for Blackwell GPUs have been fully booked for the next 12 months, signaling that any new orders placed now won’t be fulfilled until the end of next year. This significant demand has led to a positive outlook for NVIDIA's stock, with expectations that it may reach record highs.

During a series of investor meetings organized by Morgan Stanley, NVIDIA's executive team shared that the high demand for Blackwell GPUs reflects the strong momentum in its data center business. The visibility for Blackwell's future shipments remains exceptionally clear, with a long backlog indicating sustained growth. Additionally, Morgan Stanley noted that the demand for NVIDIA's Hopper chip series is also robust, with customers eager to secure orders. This indicates that shipment volumes over the next year are expected to grow at a rapid pace.

Contrary to concerns from some analysts that competition might erode NVIDIA's market share, Morgan Stanley's team believes the opposite is likely. They forecast that by 2025, NVIDIA will further expand its share in the AI processor market, driven by large custom chip users increasingly adopting NVIDIA solutions. All signs point to NVIDIA's continued dominance.

Morgan Stanley described the company's outlook for a "super strong 2025" as just the beginning of a long-term growth cycle. NVIDIA is expected to release its quarterly earnings report in November, with projections of over 80% year-over-year profit growth. Analysts like Mark Malek from Siebert Investors believe this growth rate remains impressive compared to other competitors.

UBS analysts have also supported these projections, citing Taiwan's recent export data, which aligns with NVIDIA's forecast of a 15% increase in data center revenue for the quarter ending October 31.

NVIDIA's optimism extends to its supply chain partners, particularly TSMC, which has already shipped GB200 servers. During a recent conference, Foxconn indicated that small-scale shipments of AI servers, including the GB200 model, will begin in the fourth quarter of this year, with full production ramping up in early 2025. Foxconn is expected to be among the first manufacturers to fulfill these shipments.