Q4 2025 NAND Flash Prices to Rise 5–10%

According to market research firm TrendForce, NAND Flash prices are set to rise sharply in Q4 2025, driven by supply shortages and surging enterprise SSD demand.

While the consumer market saw early demand exhaustion in the first half of 2025, leaving expectations for a typical peak season unmet, constraints in HDD supply and extended lead times pushed cloud service providers (CSPs) to pivot quickly toward QLC enterprise SSDs. This sudden surge in orders caused notable market fluctuations. SanDisk led a price increase of 10%, and Micron temporarily suspended quotations due to production and pricing considerations, shifting the market sentiment from cautious to proactive. TrendForce predicts that contract prices across all NAND Flash products could rise 5–10% on average in Q4 2025.

On the supply side, production cuts and prioritized inventory reduction in the first half improved overall market balance, easing inventory and price pressures. Apart from a few major manufacturers planning new fab launches next year, most capital expenditure is focused on advanced process upgrades to optimize unit costs and concentrate capacity on higher-margin products, supporting price stability. QLC NAND continues to gain traction for its cost advantage, particularly as generative AI drives explosive demand for large-scale data storage, prompting manufacturers to prioritize QLC capacity.

From the demand perspective, consumer weakness and slowed OEM procurement in the second half of the year, along with high inventory levels in distribution channels, could have weighed on the market. However, active inventory clearance by server OEMs and CSPs in the first half, combined with NVIDIA's Blackwell chips ramping in 2H25 and HDD supply constraints, sharply boosted enterprise SSD demand. This balance has maintained positive overall NAND Flash growth.

Client SSD inventories have significantly declined following first-half production reductions and supply adjustments, resulting in more balanced market conditions. High-capacity, cost-effective QLC products remain in short supply, further supporting demand. SSD manufacturers are strategically increasing QLC output to meet the surge in demand for products above 120TB and to prepare for 2026 order plans. Current inventory levels are now below healthy thresholds, and ongoing growth in AI and general server markets in North America is expected to sustain tight supply, driving Q4 price increases.

Meanwhile, lower-demand NAND segments like eMMC and UFS face competitive pressures in China from local players such as YMTC, giving domestic smartphone brands stronger bargaining power. Although module inventory levels are high, limiting price gains, manufacturers' focus on profitability is expected to push prices higher in Q4.

Finally, wafer output is temporarily constrained during process transitions, and production is being prioritized for high-margin lines to recover earlier losses, further tightening supply. With enterprise AI investment momentum expected to continue, NAND Flash availability will remain tight, reinforcing upward price trends for Q4 2025.